Bernstein Research Report: Strong Crypto Market Fundamentals Amid 'Artificial Crisis of Confidence' and $150,000 Forecast for 2026

As of April 27, 2026, Bernstein Research has released an analysis indicating a significant disconnect between the price trends of the crypto market and its actual intrinsic value. Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani defined the current bear market as an "artificial crisis of confidence" that is masking the strongest fundamental floor in the industry's history.

Chhugani diagnosed this phenomenon as stemming from the psychological contraction of investors who blindly believe in Bitcoin's four-year cycle. He analyzed the current market situation not as a structural collapse, but as a temporary correction occurring within a long-term upward trajectory.

Bernstein evaluated this bear market as the "weakest bear market" in history, explaining that market downside rigidity is firmer than ever. This analysis suggests that, unlike past crashes, an institutional foundation has been established to support the market.

When all conditions are perfectly aligned, the Bitcoin community creates an artificial crisis of confidence for itself. There are no actual bankrupt companies or scandals to be revealed, yet the media is once again talking about the end of Bitcoin.

The report predicted that Bitcoin's price floor will form between $60,000 and $71,000. This is near the peak of the previous cycle and serves as an indicator suggesting that the market has already entered a technical bottom zone.

Bitcoin's Market Position Undervalued Relative to Gold

Currently, Bitcoin's market capitalization is only about 4% of the total value of gold, the lowest level in the last two years. Compared to the central banks of China and India increasing their gold purchases and raising the share of global reserve assets to 29%, Bitcoin's relative undervaluation provides a basis for a strong future rebound.

• ['Continuous capital inflows through spot ETFs are serving as a key bulwark against market volatility.', 'The full-scale participation of institutional investors provides stability that differentiates the market from the previous retail-driven era.', 'These structural changes support the outlook that a trend reversal in the market will occur during the first half of 2026.']

Bernstein emphasized that the explosive growth of prediction markets will prove the practical utility of crypto assets. The related transaction volume is expected to reach $240 billion by 2026, which is projected to be a key driver in strengthening the overall fundamentals of the ecosystem.

Tokenization technology was also cited as a dominant trend that will lead the market for years to come. As the digitalization of real-world assets accelerates, the crypto market is establishing itself as a core infrastructure of the financial system beyond a mere object of speculation.

According to the outlook for the second quarter of 2026, the rise of agentic AI and changes in the regulatory environment are expected to act as individual variables for the market. While currently overshadowed by macroeconomic uncertainty, these factors are expected to maximize the market's upward potential in the mid-to-long term.

Even amidst market volatility, professional investors are reportedly achieving significant results. A crypto hedge fund led by a former Balyasny manager recorded a 17% return despite the recent chaotic market conditions, proving the market's resilience.

In conclusion, Bernstein maintained its optimistic outlook by setting a target price of $150,000 for Bitcoin in 2026. Analyst Chhugani defined the current downturn as an optimal opportunity to buy crypto-related stocks and affirmed that a full-scale market reversal will begin within the first half of 2026.