Evolution of Prediction Markets: Polymarket and Kalshi Enter Crypto Perpetual Futures Market and Expand into Derivatives

Polymarket, the world's largest blockchain-based prediction market platform, has officially announced its crypto perpetual futures trading service. On Tuesday, April 28, 2026, Polymarket stated it is expanding its product lineup beyond the model of betting on event outcomes into the realm of derivatives that allow for leverage. This announcement is interpreted as a strategic move for Polymarket to leap beyond a simple prediction tool and become a comprehensive financial trading platform.

Competitor Kalshi also ignited the race for market dominance by launching its crypto perpetual futures product in New York on the previous day, April 27, 2026. Through this product, developed under the code name 'Timeless,' Kalshi provides a contract structure with no expiration date and emphasized its plan to establish a secure trading environment under the regulation of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Consequently, the two major prediction market platforms are set for a direct confrontation in the crypto derivatives market.

Perpetual futures services are an innovative way for users to take leveraged positions in markets they know well, 24/7, without the need to wait.

Perpetual futures are leveraged derivative contracts with no expiration date, allowing users to maintain long or short positions on various assets such as cryptocurrencies, stocks, and commodities. This model overcomes the limitations of traditional prediction markets, where profits could only be realized once an outcome was finalized at a specific point in time. In particular, the ability to trade 24/7 is a major attraction for investors.

Regulatory Cooperation and Market Share Competition

Through this service expansion, Polymarket plans to officially support perpetual futures trading in the U.S. market within 2026. Currently, Polymarket boasts an overwhelming scale, recording approximately $9.7 billion in trading volume over a 30-day period in the global market. On the other hand, Kalshi, valued at $11 billion, holds about a 52.6% share in the regulated event contract market in the U.S., expanding its influence primarily among institutional investors.

• Polymarket: Global market-focused, achieved $9.7 billion in 30-day trading volume, and plans to enter the U.S. in 2026.
• Kalshi: Compliant with U.S. CFTC regulations, entered the perpetual futures market under the 'Timeless' brand.
• Regulatory Trends: The CFTC and SEC signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to cooperate on derivative definitions and clearing frameworks.

These changes are expected to impact the competitive landscape with existing decentralized exchanges (DEXs) such as Hyperliquid and GMX. While Hyperliquid leads the market with daily trading volumes ranging from $5 billion to $7 billion, the combination of vast user data and event analysis capabilities held by prediction market platforms with derivative trading is expected to create powerful synergies. Market experts analyze that as liquidity from prediction markets flows into derivatives, the capital flow of the entire cryptocurrency market could be reshaped.

A key point to watch in the future is the concretization of the regulatory framework following the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPR) issued by the CFTC on March 23, 2026. In response to the rapid growth of prediction markets and their integration with derivatives, the specific guidelines the authorities issue regarding product definitions and margin requirements will determine the market's direction. How quickly Polymarket and Kalshi can establish their services within the institutional system through consultations with regulatory authorities will be a key factor in their long-term success.