XRP Surges Past $1.40 on Volume Spike; Expectations for Further Rally Grow Amid Regulatory Clarity

On the afternoon of May 4, 2026, the price of XRP showed a strong upward trend, breaking through the major psychological resistance level of $1.40. This surge is the result of the price, which had stayed below that level over the weekend, rebounding alongside a spike in trading volume, suggesting a decisive shift in market sentiment. Investors are now focusing on whether the $1.40 level will flip from resistance to support while gauging the possibility of further breakouts.

The future path of XRP depends on the point where regulatory clarity meets technical upgrades, and whales are already betting on the outcome.

At the root of this rise lies the institutional restructuring that has continued since early 2026. In particular, on March 17, 2026, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) jointly classified XRP as a 'Digital Commodity,' completely resolving legal uncertainties. This is evaluated as the most significant institutional achievement the market has seen since the lawsuit between Ripple and the SEC was finally settled in August 2025 with a $50 million settlement.

Institutional Inflows and the Role of the ETF Market

The spot XRP ETF, launched in November 2025, is serving as a key pillar providing market liquidity. Although a report on May 2, 2026, indicated that ETF inflows temporarily slowed down, ending their longest consecutive streak of the year, this surge on May 4 suggests the possible re-entry of institutional and whale investors. This is supported by the fact that a significant portion of contract activity in prediction markets consists of directional volume that occurred within the last 24 hours.

• Primary Resistance: $1.4415 (Breakout could accelerate further gains)
• Bullish Target: $1.6451 (Key point for a long-term rally)
• Major Support Levels: $1.3859 and $1.350
• Risk Signal: Potential shift to a short-term downtrend if the closing price forms below $1.3840

On-chain data also shows a healthy state for the network. The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio and the number of active addresses are maintaining stable figures, meaning that actual network utility beyond simple price speculation is providing support. Analysis shows that whales have been securing holdings since mid-April in anticipation of technical upgrades and changes in the regulatory environment.

However, macro variables across the entire market still require caution. XRP currently maintains a high correlation of 0.85 with Bitcoin (BTC), so sharp price fluctuations in Bitcoin or a macro-economic trend of rising interest rates could put the brakes on the upward trend. Therefore, to stably secure the range between $1.40 and $1.60, a clear breakout of the $1.39–$1.44 range, which is the upper Bollinger Band resistance, must precede along with sustained trading volume.

Future Outlook: The Journey Toward $1.60

Since the conclusion of the lawsuit, Ripple has been accelerating its actual business expansion by focusing on its stablecoin RLUSD and ODL (On-Demand Liquidity) business. The fact that the $2 billion fine previously demanded by the SEC was ultimately adjusted to approximately $125.1 million has eased Ripple's financial burden, which is leading to aggressive investment for ecosystem growth.

In conclusion, the breakout on May 4, 2026, marks the process of XRP solidifying its position as a major digital asset beyond just being a beneficiary of a lawsuit. Market experts believe that if the current trading volume trend continues, a steep rise to the $1.60 level is possible. However, investors should closely monitor whether the major support level of $1.3859 is maintained to prepare for potential short-term price corrections.

This rally is the result of a trifecta of regulation, technology, and institutional demand. The resilience shown by XRP through the first half of 2026 is expected to serve as an important milestone for setting regulatory guidelines across the cryptocurrency market in the future. Investors need a strategy to confirm support at technical levels while remaining mindful of volatility.