[ND Analysis] April FOMC Rate Freeze Likely, Correlation Between 'Stealth QE' and Bitcoin Market

As the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting on April 28, 2026, approaches, the virtual asset market stands at a major turning point. Amid intersecting concerns over robust economic data and a 'higher-for-longer' interest rate environment, this meeting is expected to be a crucial indicator for gauging market liquidity flows.

The market sees a 99.5% probability of interest rates being held steady at the April FOMC, reflecting the Fed's cautious stance.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, held in Washington D.C. from April 28 to 29, is the first major policy review since the decision on March 17-18. The official rate announcement will take place at 2:00 PM local time on April 29, with global investors' attention focused on the subsequent press conference by Chair Jerome Powell.

Rate Freeze Outlook and Macroeconomic Background

Currently, the target range for the federal funds rate is maintained between 3.50% and 3.75%. According to prediction data from Polymarket, traders overwhelmingly bet on a 99.5% chance that rates will remain unchanged at this meeting. This analysis is based on recent economic indicators being strong enough to support the Fed's 'rate freeze' stance.

• Inflation risks due to heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East
• Revised forecasts by economists that rate cuts will be delayed until September
• Market reaction to Kevin Warsh, the nominee for the next Fed Chair
• The Fed's balance sheet management strategy to stabilize bank reserves

Macroeconomic uncertainty is acting as a factor delaying the timing of rate cuts. According to a Reuters survey conducted from April 17 to 21, a majority of 56 economists predicted that interest rates would remain at current levels until the end of September. This is a significant retreat compared to the March survey, where 70% expected a cut within the first half of the year.

Bitcoin is holding steady around the $88,439 level despite this high-interest rate environment. Although this is about 29.3% lower than the all-time high recorded last October, analysis suggests that the so-called 'Stealth QE'—worth approximately $40 billion supplied to the market through the Fed's purchase of short-term Treasury bills—is supporting the price floor.

Institutional investors are analyzing the liquidity environment while keeping an eye on the Fed's balance sheet expansion, but retail investors still maintain a cautious stance. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index indicates a wait-and-see attitude in the market, with many retail investors postponing a full-scale return to the market, judging that a clear signal of entering a rate-cut cycle from the Fed is necessary.

Key Watch Points for the April 29 Press Conference

The tone of Chair Jerome Powell's remarks at the press conference on April 29 at 2:30 PM will be a key factor determining market volatility. In particular, investors are focused on Powell's diagnosis of the possibility of entrenched inflation and whether any potential shifts in policy stance related to Kevin Warsh, recently nominated as Fed Chair, will be mentioned.

In conclusion, the direction of the virtual asset market in the second quarter of 2026 depends on the Fed's guidelines to be presented at this FOMC. With a rate freeze virtually certain, the market will look for hints as to when the Fed might loosen the reins of tightening, and Bitcoin is expected to explore a new direction, ending its current sideways movement within a range, depending on this outcome.