Tom Lee Analyzes Inverse Correlation Between Surging Oil Prices and Ethereum: $110 Oil Weighs Down Crypto Market

On Monday, May 18, 2026, international oil prices broke through the $110 per barrel mark, exerting new downward pressure on the cryptocurrency market. Tom Lee, founder of Fundstrat, analyzed that the inverse correlation between rising energy costs and Ethereum (ETH) liquidity is strengthening. He identified the sharp rise in Brent crude as the primary cause of the sustained selling pressure Ethereum has faced this week.

As oil prices surge toward $110, the inverse correlation with Ethereum is becoming clear. This is a factor that shrinks overall market liquidity and is a key variable causing short-term price corrections.

Surging oil prices are acting as a hidden variable in the cryptocurrency market. On May 13, 2026, Brent crude showed a stable trend between $106.60 and $107.50, but it reached $110 today, increasing market tension. Tom Lee viewed the $80 level for Brent crude as the threshold where cryptocurrency volatility expands; the current $110 situation far exceeds this, dampening investor sentiment.

Ethereum's Mid-May Price Trends and Outlook

Since the beginning of May, Ethereum has been trading within a range between $2,300 and $2,400. According to Yahoo Finance data, Ethereum closed at $2,339.36 on May 11 and recorded $2,369.04 on May 10, showing moderate volatility. MEXC's technical analysis model predicts an average price of $2,429 for May and views breaking through $2,420 as a key signal for a bullish reversal.

• May 11, 2026 Closing Price: $2,339.36 (Volume $15.5 billion)
• May 10, 2026 Closing Price: $2,369.04 (Volume $19.5 billion)
• May 9, 2026 Closing Price: $2,326.73 (Volume $12.2 billion)
• May 8, 2026 Closing Price: $2,301.00 (Volume $14.1 billion)

Tom Lee maintains his confidence in a long-term 'Crypto Spring' despite the current selling pressure. At Consensus 2026 on May 12, he argued that the crypto winter is coming to an end and that Ethereum will be its leading indicator. Lee set a long-term price target of $12,000 for Ethereum, suggesting that the current oil-based correction is a temporary macro phenomenon.

Positive catalysts for the market include Wall Street's asset tokenization movement and the rise of Agentic AI. Tom Lee predicted that these technological advancements will eventually decouple Ethereum from the volatility of the energy market. In particular, the strengthening correlation between Ethereum and software stocks over the past two months is interpreted as evidence that the cryptocurrency market is transforming into a mature, tech-centric market.

However, he did not forget to warn about risk factors throughout 2026. Lee warned that 'bear market-like' corrections could occur even within a bull market, suggesting that the current surge in oil prices could be a trap for investors. He added that whether the ISM Manufacturing Index breaks above 50 and the pace of the Fed's interest rate cuts will be key variables determining the future direction of the market.

Key Points to Watch at the End of May 2026

• Whether Ethereum breaks through and stabilizes above the $2,420 resistance level
• Possibility of Brent crude prices stabilizing below the $110 mark
• Economic recovery signals based on whether the ISM Manufacturing Index exceeds 50
• The impact of the Fed's interest rate cut policy on the industrial and financial sectors

In conclusion, the market is expected to remain volatile until the end of May, depending on whether oil prices stabilize. Investors should watch whether Ethereum can break through technical resistance levels and if liquidity pressure will ease. Tom Lee's final analysis is that the fundamentals of the Ethereum ecosystem remain solid despite macroeconomic uncertainties.