Bernstein Reaffirms 'Outperform' Rating for Figure Technology After Q1 Loan Volume Surge... Forecasts 72% Upside Potential

Investment research and brokerage firm Bernstein reaffirmed its 'Outperform' rating for Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR) as its first-quarter loan volume more than doubled. Bernstein set a price target of $67 for FIGR, suggesting a significant upside potential of approximately 72% from current price levels.

Figure is not just a fintech lender, but a key infrastructure provider for the nascent $4 trillion tokenized credit market.

Although Figure's stock price is down 60% from its previous peak, Bernstein views the current price as a significant buying opportunity. This conviction is based on the 'tokenization thesis' that differentiates Figure from traditional fintech companies, with financial efficiency improvements through blockchain technology serving as the core driver.

Record Q1 2026 Performance: Surge in Loan Volume and Revenue

According to the earnings report released on May 11, 2026, Figure's consumer loan marketplace volume reached a record high of $2.9 billion, a 113% increase year-over-year. Net revenue also rose 98% year-over-year to $167 million, demonstrating strong financial growth.

• Consumer Loan Marketplace Volume: $2.9 Billion (113% increase year-over-year)
• Adjusted Net Revenue: $167 Million (92% increase year-over-year)
• Figure Connect Volume: $1.6 Billion
• $YLDS in Circulation: $598 Million (83% increase quarter-over-quarter)

Figure's growth continued into April 2026, with loan volume reaching $1.34 billion, a 108% increase year-over-year. Bernstein analyzed that these metrics show the company's fundamental growth story remains intact despite recent stock price volatility, with performance outpacing market concerns.

Bernstein evaluates that Figure's blockchain-native approach provides a structural advantage over traditional fintech competitors like SoFi. In particular, the cost savings and transparency offered by the tokenization platform are attractive factors for institutional investors, which is expected to drive long-term corporate value growth.

Figure Connect and Dominance in the Tokenized Credit Market

Figure's tokenized marketplace, 'Figure Connect,' is the core engine of this growth outlook. Bernstein expects the platform to process 56% of total volume in 2026, up significantly from 46% in 2025, reflecting the platform's rapid adoption rate.

Currently, Figure holds an overwhelming market share of approximately 75% in the $17 billion tokenized private credit market. Bernstein noted that Figure has secured a de facto monopoly in this field and is poised to be the primary beneficiary of the tokenized credit market, which is expected to grow to $4 trillion.

Expanding Institutional Demand and New Channel Growth

Demand from institutional investors is also increasing noticeably. Transaction volume for business-purpose products, including the Small and Medium Business (SMB) channel, reached approximately $60 million this quarter, showing rapid expansion. Additionally, as deposit activity within the pipeline accelerates, market confidence in Figure's loan products is strengthening.

In conclusion, Bernstein named Figure as one of its top picks for 2026 despite recent market volatility. The record-breaking Q1 performance and unique position in the tokenization market are expected to serve as strong evidence supporting future stock price recovery and the achievement of the target price.

Institutional Demand Expansion and New Channel Growth

In conclusion, Bernstein named Figure as one of its top picks for 2026 despite recent market volatility. The record-breaking Q1 performance and unique position in the tokenization market are expected to serve as strong evidence supporting future stock price recovery and the achievement of the target price.