Aftermath of the Kananaskis Summit and G7 Leadership Uncertainty: An Analysis of Prediction Market Data

On Monday, July 13, 2026, the G7 summit held in Kananaskis, Alberta, Canada, faced a serious leadership crisis due to the early departure of U.S. President Donald Trump. While the meeting served as a stage to test the G7's international influence by seeking a joint response to the conflict between Israel and Iran, the cohesion among leaders appeared more fragile than ever.

Behind the diplomatic rhetoric, prediction markets are already signaling a major overhaul of G7 leadership. According to data from major prediction platforms such as Octagon and Kalshi, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron are being cited as the top candidates for the next exit, amplifying uncertainty on the global political stage.

The data from prediction markets carries a different weight because it represents the results of actual capital being deployed, rather than just opinion polls. To gauge the future of the G7 as it enters a period of political upheaval, we have conducted an in-depth analysis of the exit probabilities and backgrounds of the major leaders currently being most actively traded.

The atmosphere in Kananaskis cooled rapidly after President Trump left on Monday night, immediately after signing a joint statement stipulating the prohibition of Iran's nuclear possession. Leaders gathered beneath the mountains of Alberta struggled to manage the economic fallout of the war with Iran, but the independent actions of the United States raised fundamental questions about the G7's raison d'être.

As of July 13, 2026, a tense atmosphere pervades the meeting venue in Alberta as the remaining six world leaders struggle to salvage the summit in President Trump's absence. Amid the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, the task of proving the G7's practical influence remains, but the early withdrawal of the U.S. is sending an unsettling signal to the international community.

Despite G7 leaders' efforts to build a unified front regarding the Israel-Iran conflict, prediction markets are already betting on a divided future.

The market's hottest topic is British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. According to Octagon data, the probability of Starmer being the first G7 leader to step down is calculated at 53.0%, which is 8.6 percentage points higher than the 44.4% predicted by the analytical model. This suggests that investors view the political situation in the UK as much more unstable than the model's statistical predictions.

Macron's Volatility and the Crisis at the Élysée Palace

1. French President Emmanuel Macron's probability of stepping down surged by 9 percentage points from 35.0% to 44.0% on April 13, 2026, triggering market warning lights.
2. Although he attempted to demonstrate his strength by hosting the G7 summit in France in June 2026, falling domestic approval ratings and political polarization continue to hold him back.
3. In the Kalshi market, the probability of his exit is set low at 1.1%, showing that assessments of Macron's stability vary across different platforms.

President Donald Trump is also facing a difficult situation. He is currently blocked by the economic impact of the Iran war and the massive hurdle of the upcoming midterm elections. While he is trying to find a breakthrough through a preliminary agreement with Tehran, his probability of stepping down in the Kalshi market is only 0.2%, suggesting his power base remains solid.

Signs of Leadership Change in Canada and Stable Leaders

Signs of change are also being detected around Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada, the host of this summit. Mark Carney has appeared in Kalshi's exit market with a 0.1% probability, hinting that discussions about a leadership change in Canada could begin in earnest by mid-2026. Additionally, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz are maintaining stability with relatively low probabilities of stepping down, while Japan's Sanae Takaichi has appeared in Octagon data, reflecting market interest in future leadership.

In conclusion, the future of the G7 depends on the results of the US midterm elections and the final resolution of the Iran conflict. While Keir Starmer is currently considered the market's most likely candidate for exit, a chain reaction of leadership shifts occurring before 2027 would be a catalyst that fundamentally shakes the global economic and security landscape.