China After Xi Jinping: Analysis of Potential Next Leader Candidates Identified by Prediction Markets

As of May 18, 2026, President Xi Jinping's succession plan has emerged as a key concern for global markets and geopolitical analysts, moving beyond mere speculation. As the 21st Party Congress in 2027 approaches, prediction markets are identifying Shanghai Party Secretary Chen Jining and Executive Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang as the most likely successor candidates.

Against this backdrop, ND Magazine provides an in-depth analysis of the direction of China's next leadership based on the latest prediction market data and political profiles. The current power landscape is a period where President Xi Jinping's one-man rule is solid, while behind-the-scenes work for the formation of the next generation of leadership is in full swing.

As of May 2026, China's political landscape is characterized by President Xi Jinping's solid one-man rule, with behind-the-scenes work for the formation of the next generation of leadership in full swing. With the 21st Party Congress about a year away, the retirement of the Cultural Revolution generation and large-scale personnel reshuffles are anticipated, which is interpreted not as a mere coincidence but as a result of institutionalized development. This high rate of turnover is interpreted as a strategic choice to maintain the party's vitality.

In 2027, there is a high possibility that a potential successor will be selected from among those born in the 1970s, and we must watch whether this process will be marked by cases of downfall similar to those seen in recent military and diplomatic appointments.

According to data from Kalshi dated May 10, 2026, Shanghai Party Secretary Chen Jining is considered the most likely successor candidate with a 22.0% probability. An environmental scientist with an academic background, he is currently proving his administrative capabilities as the head of Shanghai, and his technocratic expertise is being evaluated as a core competency for future leadership. In particular, the fact that the position of Shanghai Party Secretary has traditionally served as a gateway to the top leadership adds to the market's confidence.

Key Candidate Groups Noted by Prediction Markets

1. Chen Jining (Party Secretary of Shanghai): Holds a 22.0% probability with a portfolio in environmental science and urban administration.
2. Ding Xuexiang (Executive Vice Premier of the State Council): Holds an 18.0% probability, overseeing science, technology, reform, and development.
3. Li Qiang (Premier of the State Council): Holds a 13.0% probability, overseeing overall economic policy and state administration.

Executive Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang is closely following Chen Jining with an 18.0% probability, with some analytical models recording a high probability of over 21%. Known as President Xi Jinping's most trusted confidant, he has built a unique portfolio in science, technology, and development while leading the Central Science and Technology Commission. His career path is evaluated as a quintessential example of 'chief of staff' style leadership, distinguishing him from other candidates.

Institutional Mechanisms and Variables of Power Succession

Despite the incumbency premium, Premier Li Qiang shows a relatively low probability of 13.0% in prediction markets. This appears to be the result of a combination of factors, such as the current direction of economic policy and his advanced age, suggesting that more weight is being placed on his role as an administrative expert rather than the next top leader. Furthermore, his strong image as a loyal executor for President Xi Jinping is analyzed as a factor that diminishes his appeal as an independent successor.

The succession of power in the Chinese Communist Party theoretically goes through the decision of the Central Committee, but in reality, it is determined by complex dynamics within the Politburo Standing Committee. As of May 2026, reports on various candidate groups continue through informal channels, but the final selection is likely to remain veiled until just before the Party Congress. In particular, unconfirmed reports such as rumors of appointments or role theories for certain individuals raised since early 2026 are factors increasing market volatility, and it should be noted that the authenticity of such information has not been independently verified.

In conclusion, the period from 2026 to 2027 is expected to be a critical watershed that will determine China's next decade. While prediction market data points to a two-way race between Chen Jining and Ding Xuexiang, continuous monitoring is required given the inherent volatility of Chinese politics and unexpected personnel variables. ND Magazine plans to precisely track the path of power shifts leading up to the upcoming Party Congress.