Who is the Next Pope: Prediction Markets and the Vatican's Gaze

As Pope Francis was hospitalized in critical condition in early 2025 before entering a recovery phase, the eyes of the Catholic world are quietly turning toward the Sistine Chapel. With various 'Papabile' (papal candidates) ranging from seasoned diplomats to voices from the Global South awaiting the next conclave, prediction markets are reflecting their odds of election in real-time, forecasting the future of the Church.

While Pope Francis is recovering, the Catholic Church has already entered into strategic considerations and discussions regarding future leadership in preparation for what comes next.

The Vatican officially announced in March 2025 that the Pope's health status had transitioned from 'critical' to 'stable' and that his oxygen mask had been removed. The 88-year-old Pope received five weeks of treatment at Gemelli Hospital for respiratory and kidney issues, and his condition has reportedly improved to the point where he can now sit in a chair and eat breakfast. This health crisis has naturally sparked a sense of urgency regarding the election of the next Pope.

Key Candidates Noted by Prediction Markets: Parolin, Pizzaballa, Ambongo

1. Pietro Parolin: The Vatican Secretary of State, considered the most likely candidate with a 5.0% probability according to Kalshi data.
2. Pierbattista Pizzaballa: The Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, recording a 4.0% probability and regarded as a Middle East expert.
3. Fridolin Ambongo: A Cardinal from the Democratic Republic of the Congo representing the Global South, showing a 3.0% probability.

Cardinal Pietro Parolin of Italy has served as the Vatican Secretary of State since 2013, demonstrating strong diplomatic capabilities. A veteran who has worked in the Vatican's diplomatic service since the age of 31, he is evaluated as the frontrunner among the Curia (internal Vatican) candidates. His extensive administrative experience and diplomatic sense are reasons why he is considered the right person to lead the Church amidst a complex international situation.

The Rise of the Global South and the Possibility of New Leadership

Alongside Cardinal Ambongo of Congo, Bishop Pablo Virgilio David of the Philippines is also a figure of interest. Appointed as a Cardinal in late 2024, Bishop David is widely known for his integrity and social advocacy, representing the voices of Asia and Africa where the growth of the Catholic Church is prominent. This suggests that ecclesiastical power, traditionally centered in Europe, is shifting toward the Global South.

Cardinal Pizzaballa has been deeply involved in Middle East peace issues through his unique position as the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem. Meanwhile, discussions regarding a 'transitional Pope' who would continue the traditions of Benedict XVI or John Paul II rather than pursue radical change continue to be raised. Ultimately, the next conclave is expected to be a major turning point in deciding whether to continue the reforms of Pope Francis or return to tradition.