Mike Novogratz Predicts June Signing for Stablecoin Regulation... Conflicting Views from Industry and Politics

Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, has signaled a major turning point for U.S. cryptocurrency regulation. He expressed optimism that the 'CLARITY for Payment Stablecoins Act' will reach the President's desk and be signed into law by June 2026. These remarks, coming ahead of the Senate Banking Committee's formal review, are drawing significant industry attention.

In a recent conversation with Anthony Scaramucci, Novogratz predicted the bill would pass the standing committee in May 2026 and complete the legislative process in June. He emphasized that establishing regulatory clarity would accelerate the influx of institutional capital, expressing confidence that the current legislative deadlock will soon be resolved.

This bill will be handled in committee in May and finalized in June.

The bill previously passed the House on July 17, 2025, with bipartisan support—294 in favor and 134 against. Currently, the Senate Banking Committee is preparing for a bill markup aimed for late April or early May 2026, marking progress approximately 10 months after the House passage.

Internal Caution: A 50% Chance of Passage

However, contrary to Novogratz's optimism, Galaxy Digital's own research division is offering a more cautious analysis. Alex Thorn, Head of Galaxy Research, estimated the probability of the bill passing within 2026 at 50%, citing Senate legislative delays and a tight schedule. He warned that the legislative clock is ticking fast, identifying political uncertainty as a major variable.

• Whether the Senate Banking Committee announces a hearing for the bill markup
• Reaching a consensus between the banking sector and the industry regarding provisions on stablecoin yields
• The Senate leadership's confirmation of a floor vote schedule and priority assignment
• Maintaining legislative momentum as the 2026 midterm election cycle begins

The provision regarding stablecoin yields, one of the bill's core points of contention, remains a flashpoint for conflict. Major industry players like Coinbase and Stripe favor flexible regulation, while banking interest groups are lobbying to limit the revenue-generating models of stablecoin issuers to protect their own interests.

Within political circles, both calls for swift action and concerns are emerging simultaneously. Senator Cynthia Lummis warned that missing this opportunity could delay regulatory reform until 2030. Senator Bernie Moreno also pointed out that if the bill does not reach the floor by May 2026, it will lose all momentum as it enters the midterm election phase.

Global Regulatory Competition and the U.S. Position

Critics also point out that while U.S. legislation is delayed, global regulatory leadership is shifting to Europe and South America. With Europe's MiCA framework taking root and South American countries showing rapid adoption, analysis suggests the U.S. could fall behind in international competitiveness if it fails to establish a market structure.

If the bill passes in June 2026 as Novogratz predicts, it is expected to provide unprecedented stability to the $317 billion stablecoin market. Once stablecoins are officially recognized as a means of payment within a clear legal framework, barriers to entry for institutional investors are expected to lower, and overall trust in the digital asset ecosystem is likely to increase.

Ultimately, the Senate Banking Committee's actions scheduled for May 2026 will be the watershed moment determining the future direction of the U.S. cryptocurrency industry. The industry is closely watching whether Novogratz's rosy outlook will become a reality or if it will drift long-term once again, blocked by political interests.