NHL and CFTC Sign MoU to Ensure Integrity of Sports-Based Prediction Markets: A Leap Toward Institutional Finance

On May 21, 2026, the National Hockey League (NHL) and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) formalized a strategic partnership to establish sports-based prediction markets within the regulatory system. By signing a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) regarding market integrity and data utilization, both parties agreed to strengthen the CFTC's oversight authority over sports event contracts and create a transparent trading environment. Through this agreement, the NHL has joined the oversight framework of a federal regulatory agency as a major professional sports league, signifying that prediction markets, which had previously remained in a regulatory blind spot, have entered the mainstream financial market.

Prediction markets are now skating out of the 'penalty box' and into the mainstream market.

This agreement is evaluated as a strategic alignment to manage the rapidly growing sports prediction market. The NHL and CFTC plan to establish a cooperative framework to prevent market manipulation and strengthen investor protection. In particular, this partnership holds great significance beyond simple cooperation, as it has laid the foundation for sports event-based derivatives to be systematically operated under federal government oversight.

2026 Regulatory Turning Point: Shift in Federal Government Stance

These changes stemmed from regulatory innovations led by CFTC Chairman Michael Selig in early 2026. Chairman Selig announced plans for rulemaking regarding prediction markets in January 2026, signaling the start of regulatory reform. Subsequently, in February, he abruptly withdrew the June 2024 notice of proposed rulemaking and the September 2025 staff advisory, moving away from the restrictive regulatory stance of the past.

• January 2026: CFTC Chairman officially announces prediction market rulemaking
• February 2026: Withdrawal of past restrictive regulatory notices and advisories
• March 12, 2026: Issuance of Staff Advisory Letter (No. 26-08) supporting event-based derivatives

In particular, the Staff Advisory Letter (No. 26-08) issued on March 12, 2026, cited Section 1a(47)(A)(ii) of the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) to define contracts settled based on the occurrence of a specific event as 'Swaps.' This served as the legal basis for including event contracts based on sports match results within the category of official financial products, placing them under the protection and oversight of federal statutes.

Market Expansion and Jurisdictional Conflicts

The change in the regulatory environment was an inevitable result of the market's explosive growth. Throughout 2025, the trading volume of major platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi reached approximately $38 billion to $39 billion, proving the market's immense scale. As capital inflow accelerated, the need for professional leagues to directly participate in the regulatory process to increase market credibility was raised.

However, pushback from state governments against the strengthening of federal regulation continues. On April 30, 2026, state government officials, including the Maryland Office of the Attorney General (OAG), expressed concerns that the CFTC is infringing on state authority by asserting regulatory power over sports betting within Designated Contract Markets (DCMs) and filing lawsuits against state governments. In response, the CFTC filed an amicus brief with the Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals on May 12, 2026, reaffirming the federal government's exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets.

Data Integrity and Future Outlook

Technical standards to ensure market transparency are also taking shape. On May 13, 2026, the CFTC issued a No-Action Letter (9131-26) regarding data reporting for event contracts, providing guidance on reporting obligations. Accordingly, official NHL data will be used as the decisive basis for contract settlement, which is expected to follow the strict data management standards demonstrated in past draft lottery disclosures.

The upcoming 2026-27 season will be the first season to which this new regulatory framework is applied. This season, the NHL's 110th, will expand to an 84-game schedule for the first time since the 1993-94 season and is set to open in September 2026. The increase in the number of games is expected to provide more liquidity to prediction markets, and fans are anticipated to be able to trade event contracts more safely based on federal regulatory oversight and official league data.