Mizuho Securities Maintains 'Neutral' Rating on Circle Despite OCC Bank Approval... "Regulatory Compliance is Just a Basic for Growth"

On July 10, 2026, Circle Internet Group received final approval from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to establish a National Trust Bank. This approval is regarded as a historic milestone in integrating blockchain technology and digital assets into the core of the U.S. financial system, providing the legal foundation for Circle to offer institutional custody services. Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire described it as a 'decisive step' in bringing blockchain technology into the U.S. financial system.

Circle National Trust has been granted the authority to begin operations after July 10, 2026, and is expected to officially open soon. Currently, the OCC has not set a separate strict deadline or cutoff for the commencement of bank operations.

However, despite these regulatory achievements, the market's outlook remains cautious. On July 13, 2026, three days after the approval announcement, Mizuho Securities reaffirmed its 'Neutral' investment rating for Circle. Analyst Dan Dolev noted that while Circle (CRCL) shares rose about 4-5% following the news and institutional investors like ARK increased their holdings, regulatory compliance is merely a basic requirement for stablecoin operators and is unlikely to be a direct growth driver.

Market Share Gap and Global Competition Status

As of mid-July 2026, the stablecoin market continues to be dominated by Tether (USDT). Tether's market capitalization stands at approximately $183.6 billion, accounting for 59.9% of the total market, while Circle's USDC records a market share of 24.6% at approximately $75.3 billion, showing a significant gap. Mizuho pointed out that this market share disparity is a key challenge for Circle to address.

• Tether (USDT): Approximately $183.6 billion, leading global exchange liquidity and offshore payment markets.
• USD Coin (USDC): Approximately $75.3 billion, concentrated in North American institutional investors and the DeFi ecosystem.
• DAI: Approximately $5.0 billion, utilized as a major collateral asset in decentralized finance.
• PayPal USD (PYUSD): Approximately $2.7 billion, targeting the retail market through PayPal's payment network.

Tether's dominance is also evident in offshore markets. According to reports on July 13, 2026, the Bolivian government is considering integrating Tether into its national payment system. This is cited as an example of how Circle's USDC, which aims for a regulated dollar model, is falling behind Tether's strong 'offshore' influence in terms of global liquidity.

In the retail payment market, PayPal's PYUSD is emerging as a strong competitor, threatening Circle's position. Mizuho previously upgraded Circle's investment rating to neutral in January 2026 based on the increased use of USDC on Polymarket, but concluded that the company is now at a testing point where it must prove substantial institutional capital inflows and expansion of retail market influence beyond mere regulatory approval.