Bitcoin Call Option Strike Price Drops by $10,000... Retreating from Six-Figure Price Forecasts

As of July 16, 2026, the Bitcoin options market shows a noticeable recalibration of trader expectations. The most popular call option strike price, a key indicator of institutional and retail investor sentiment, has fallen by $10,000. This represents a clear retreat from the aggressive six-figure price targets that dominated the market in early 2026, reflecting a general contraction in market sentiment.

This shift is interpreted as a leading indicator of market direction ahead of the July 18, 2026, expiration date. The decline in the most popular call option strike price means that investors are valuing Bitcoin's short-term upside potential lower than before. Coupled with the stagnation of spot prices, this suggests a strategic realignment is taking place in the options market.

The $10,000 drop in the most popular Bitcoin call option strike price is a decisive signal of market direction ahead of the July 18, 2026, expiration date.

The current mood stands in stark contrast to the optimism of January 2026, when $100,000 call options on the Deribit exchange were the most popular bet. At that time, traders committed large amounts of capital with strong conviction that Bitcoin would break the $100,000 mark. However, as Bitcoin's spot price failed to enter the six-figure range and turned downward, expectations for such a breakout are rapidly cooling.

Decrease in Open Interest and Contraction of Market Liquidity

The cooling trend across the market is clearly confirmed in quantitative data. The total Open Interest (OI) for Bitcoin options across all exchanges has plummeted from a peak of $65 billion recorded last October to approximately $35 billion as of July 16, 2026. This decrease in notional value reflects large-scale deleveraging and capital outflows occurring throughout the cryptocurrency market.

• Most popular call option strike price: Reported a $10,000 drop as of July 16, 2026
• Total Open Interest: Decreased from $65 billion in October to $35 billion in July
• Put/Call Open Interest Ratio: Recorded 1.51 on some platforms, indicating an increase in bearish bets
• Max Pain Price: Formed around $63,000 for the July 8 expiry

Macroeconomic factors also served as a major catalyst driving these changes in the options market. In particular, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes released on July 8, 2026, exerted significant pressure on market sentiment. While the market had a high proportion of call options in early July, the fact that the actual 'Max Pain' point remained near $63,000 raised the possibility that prices would converge to a lower-than-expected level.

According to the latest data from Barchart, the current Put/Call Open Interest ratio has reached 1.51. This means there is significantly more open interest in put options than in call options, showing that investors are focusing on hedging and building protective positions against a bear market. The phenomenon of total put option premiums overwhelming call options suggests that market participants are placing more weight on the possibility of further declines rather than a short-term price rebound.

Outlook for the July 18 Expiry and Psychological Resistance Levels

Ahead of the July 18, 2026 expiry, the call option strike price, which has lowered by $10,000, is likely to act as a strong psychological resistance level for the market. As traders lower their target prices, upside volatility may be limited, which becomes a factor weakening the recovery resilience of the spot market. This conservative attitude in the options market signals that Bitcoin prices will be range-bound or stabilize downward for the time being.

In conclusion, the decline in strike prices and the decrease in open interest observed in the Bitcoin options market can be interpreted as a process of cooling off the overheated optimism of the first half of 2026. Investors are now prioritizing realistic price defense and risk management over the symbolic target of $100,000. Market trends following the July 18 expiry will be a watershed moment in determining how these recalibrated expectations will be reflected in actual prices.