Bitcoin 'Great Rotation': Long-term Holder Supply Shifts to New Buyers, Reshaping Market Structure

As of July 14, 2026, the Bitcoin market is facing a significant structural transition known as the 'Great Rotation.' While the Bitcoin price attempts to stabilize around the $62,600 level following the sell-off on July 13, on-chain data suggests that the supply held by long-term holders, often referred to as 'diamond hands,' is shifting significantly to a new layer of investors.

This phenomenon signifies a change in the market's underlying strength, with various entities ranging from Korean retail investors to large global banks absorbing this supply. This change of hands on the supply side is evaluated as a key driver that will absorb future market volatility and form new support levels.

On the supply side of the Bitcoin market, long-term holders (LTHs) have quietly begun distributing their holdings. These are groups that have held assets since previous price rallies and are now utilizing the current price stagnation period to transfer assets to new buyers. This rotation is steadily progressing even amidst an unstable macroeconomic environment where the possibility of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) has been raised.

Long-term holders are passing their supply to a new generation of buyers, but concerns over the Fed's interest rate hikes still leave the possibility of triggering the final capitulation the market has been waiting for.

Market experts believe this shift in supply will further diversify Bitcoin's ownership structure. In particular, the process of consolidating energy as the price moves sideways near $62,600 is analyzed to show a pattern similar to the hand-changing phenomenon seen just before past bull markets. This suggests that despite short-term price volatility, the market's long-term fundamentals are strengthening.

On-chain Metrics and Profiles of New Buyers

As of July 11, 2026, the total circulating supply of Bitcoin reached 20.05 million BTC. This is an increase of approximately 0.82% compared to the same period last year, and HODL wave data clearly shows that 'old supply' is moving into the hands of short-term holders. This data supports the idea that market liquidity is being absorbed by new demand rather than being in a state of oversupply.

• Bitcoin Circulating Supply: 20.05 million BTC (as of July 11, 2026)
• Bitcoin Bank Adoption Index: 32% (depth score based on 25 major financial institutions)
• U.S. Government Holdings: 324,552 BTC (valued at over $20 billion)

One pillar of the new buying pressure is coming from individual investors in South Korea. Following a 'meltdown' in the South Korean stock market where the KOSPI index plummeted, capital exiting the stock market flowed heavily into the cryptocurrency market. As a result, cryptocurrency trading volume in South Korea surged to record levels, playing a role in supporting the downside of Bitcoin prices.

The movement of institutional finance is also taking shape. According to a strategic report, the Bitcoin Bank Adoption Index recorded a depth score of 32%, meaning that 25 major banks are actively building Bitcoin-related services such as custody, trading, lending, and investment products. Even if they do not own Bitcoin directly, they are preparing infrastructure to target a potential market of 13.9 million BTC.

Analysis of Government Asset Movements and Bottom Building

Meanwhile, large-scale fund movements by the U.S. government have injected short-term tension into the market. According to a report by Arkham, U.S. government wallets recently transferred $288 million worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum from seized assets to Coinbase Prime. The U.S. government still holds more than 320,000 Bitcoins, so their future actions are expected to act as a key variable in market supply.

Regarding the current market situation, analysts are diagnosing that 'Bottom Building' is underway. This is because panic selling by holders typically occurs in the final stages of a bear market. However, Glassnode maintained a cautious stance, warning that a 'Final Washout' process to completely clear out market overheating or weak hands might be necessary before a true recovery begins.

From a macroeconomic perspective, geopolitical risks such as Donald Trump's threat to strike Iran are testing Bitcoin's status as a safe-haven asset. While the price of gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, is showing a downward trend, Bitcoin maintaining the $62,600 level is interpreted as an encouraging sign. Ultimately, for this 'Great Rotation' to conclude successfully, a strong support base of new buyers capable of overcoming external economic variables is essential.