Bernstein Report: Core Scientific's AI Pivot Success is an 'Exceptional Case of Capital Expenditure,' Cannot Be a Template for the Entire Mining Industry

As Bitcoin mining companies rapidly pivot to artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure for revenue diversification, a recent report from Bernstein released on July 15, 2026, warned that the industry's most successful case may be irreplicable. While Core Scientific achieved a phenomenal 75% Return on Assets (ROA) through a landmark deal with CoreWeave, analysts evaluated this as a 'capital expenditure outlier' rather than a general template.

Bernstein pointed out that Core Scientific's success masks the harsh capital requirements and low margins faced by other mining companies. According to the report, the stabilized ROA projections for TeraWulf and Cipher Mining are only 5% and 4%, respectively, standing in stark contrast to Core Scientific's figures.

The analysis released by Bernstein on July 15, 2026, presented a sobering reality to the optimistic narrative of AI and cryptocurrency convergence. While expectations for AI data center conversion are high across the mining industry, most companies have not secured the special capital advantages enjoyed by Core Scientific. The following are the projected ROA comparison figures for major mining companies analyzed by Bernstein.

Core Scientific's 75% ROA is the result of a combination of highly favorable conditions in terms of capital expenditure, and it should not be considered the standard for the entire industry.

Core Scientific succeeded in securing high profit margins of 80-85% through its partnership with CoreWeave. This revenue structure was possible thanks to contract terms where the client directly bears power and utility costs and supports a significant portion of the infrastructure construction costs.

Core Scientific's Unique Capital Advantage

Core Scientific's contracts cannot be unilaterally terminated and feature a 'take-or-pay' structure with annual escalators on fixed costs. These terms protect the company from typical infrastructure risks and provide investors with high revenue visibility.

• Customers bear full responsibility for power and utility costs
• Expected operating margins of 80-85%
• Absence of unilateral termination rights and fixed cost structure
• CoreWeave provides up to $1.5 million per megawatt for infrastructure modifications

In contrast, other mining companies are taking on massive debt for AI transitions. In the case of Cipher, quarterly interest expenses as of Q1 2026 surged to $33.4 million from $3.2 million in the previous nine months, clearly demonstrating the financial burden of infrastructure-scale operations. This is interpreted as a bet on large-scale infrastructure build-out rather than simple mining-scale debt.

Core Scientific plans to deliver 450 megawatts (MW) of billable capacity by late summer 2026 and is projected to reach the full 590 megawatts promised to CoreWeave by early 2027. This is regarded as a significant operational milestone achieved just two years after the company emerged from bankruptcy.

Building $10 Billion Worth of AI Infrastructure

Core Scientific plans for approximately $2 billion in total capital expenditures in 2026 alone, with $700 million of that to be allocated for new site acquisitions. This massive investment is a strategic move to generate total revenue ranging from $6.7 billion to $10 billion over the 12-year contract period.

These long-term contracts provide rare revenue stability in the volatile Bitcoin mining industry. Even if the ROA for new entrants is significantly lower than Core Scientific's, the transition to AI data centers is becoming an essential path for mining companies' survival following the halving.

In conclusion, Bernstein advised that investors should abandon expectations that all mining companies will replicate a profit model like Core Scientific's. While the AI transition remains a valid strategy, the market's cold assessment is that profitability will inevitably vary widely depending on each company's capital structure and contract terms.