Bitcoin Reclaims $65,000, But the Real Test Is the 'Fed in July'

As of Wednesday, July 22, 2026, Bitcoin is trading at $65,500, its highest level in two weeks, creating an optimistic atmosphere in the market. Bulls, who have seen a price increase of about 5% over the past week, are hoping that this rebound will be the signal for a full-scale rally.

However, despite these chart-based achievements, the real challenge facing investors is macroeconomic barriers. The eyes of the cryptocurrency market are now turning away from charts and toward the Federal Reserve Board in Washington D.C., with Chairman Kevin Warsh at the center.

The Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold a two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting starting on July 28 to decide the direction of future monetary policy. This meeting is expected to be a critical turning point that will determine whether Bitcoin can stably maintain the psychological resistance level of $65,000.

In particular, as this rebound has been driven by large-scale capital inflows into spot ETFs, the key issue is how the Fed's interest rate decision will affect liquidity supply from institutional investors.

The Bitcoin market has demonstrated clear resilience over the past 10 days. After hitting a low of $61,799 on July 14, it continued to rise for five consecutive days, reaching a monthly high of $65,756 on July 20. Today, July 22, the market has entered a phase of consolidating prices while digesting these gains.

While Bitcoin's structural setup appears to remain bullish throughout 2026, short-term volatility will be heavily influenced by the Federal Reserve's stance next week.

Currently, the U.S. benchmark interest rate remains at the 3.5% level, which acts as significant pressure on the risk asset market. If the Federal Reserve, led by Chair Kevin Warsh, strengthens its 'higher for longer' stance to curb inflation, Bitcoin's upward momentum is likely to be limited. Investors are closely watching whether Chair Warsh's hawkish tendencies will shrink market liquidity.

3.5% Interest Rate and the Opportunity Cost of Digital Gold

For institutional investors, a 3.5% risk-free rate is a factor that increases the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin. As long as Treasury yields remain at attractive levels, capital flows into volatile cryptocurrencies will inevitably be cautious, which is also confirmed by the recent inverse correlation between the strong dollar and Bitcoin prices. Therefore, the longer the interest rate freeze lasts, the more fatigue the bull market may accumulate.

• Federal Funds Rate: Currently maintained at 3.5%
• Next FOMC Meeting: Scheduled for July 28-29, 2026
• ETF Inflows over the last 5 days: Recorded over $600 million
• Fed Chair: Kevin Warsh, focusing on inflation signals

Fortunately, liquidity supply through spot ETFs is serving as a solid support to defend against market declines. Over the past five days, more than $600 million in capital has flowed into U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs, and this 'sticky' institutional capital plays a role in mitigating short-term shocks following Federal Reserve policy announcements. This is a key factor securing Bitcoin's downside rigidity even amidst macroeconomic uncertainty.

Ultimately, the direction of the third quarter of 2026 depends on how inflation data determines whether the Federal Reserve freezes interest rate cuts. If hawkish remarks are poured out at the press conference held immediately after the July 29 meeting, the market could once again face the risk of a 'bear market reset.' Investors should re-examine their portfolio strategies through the end of the year and closely monitor changes in the Fed's tone.