XRP On-chain Metrics Reach Highest Levels Since 2018; Breaking $1.45 Resistance is Key

As of May 18, 2026, XRP faces a starkly contradictory situation. On-chain metrics indicate the highest level of whale accumulation since 2018, yet the token price remains trapped below the $1.45 resistance level, as market inertia overwhelms fundamental strength. This phenomenon is interpreted as a high-level psychological standoff where the conviction of large-scale investors clashes with the caution of the general market.

Over the past 24 hours, the XRP price has dropped by approximately 5%, retreating to the $1.40 level. This correction occurred amidst a general consolidation phase in the cryptocurrency market, contrasting with the continuously improving network activity metrics. Experts define the current price stagnation as a "compression phase" ahead of significant future volatility.

The current XRP market is evaluated as being in a state similar to a "compressed spring." While the price remains within a narrow range between $1.30 and $1.45, large-scale investors are focusing on securing holdings in preparation for potential institutional changes and technical breakthroughs. This divergence between price and fundamentals suggests that market energy is condensing in one place.

Institutional appetite for XRP is accelerating in many ways, but the digital asset's price continues to struggle amidst broad market consolidation.

From a technical perspective, for XRP to begin a full-scale rally, it is essential to form a daily closing price above $1.45. If this resistance is broken, a path to rise through $1.70 to $1.80 opens up, but a breakout without accompanying trading volume risks being a temporary phenomenon. Additionally, the NVT ratio soaring to 1,076 is cited as an indicator supporting the possibility of a short-term price correction.

Record-Breaking Accumulation by Whales and On-Chain Metrics

According to data from Santiment, wallets holding more than 10 million XRP currently control approximately 45.83 billion tokens. This amounts to about $68.5 billion, showing that large holders are maintaining long-term holding positions rather than releasing supply into the market. Notably, this accumulation rate has been recorded as the fastest since 2018.

• The number of XRP Ledger wallets holding more than 10,000 tokens reached an all-time high of 332,230.
• This accumulation trend is analyzed to have continued steadily since June 2024, reflecting the confidence of large investors.
• The long position ratio of whales currently reaches 75%, indicating a strong buy-dominant strategy by institutions.
• Approximately 68.5% of the total supply is concentrated in large wallets, leading to expectations of increased price elasticity due to the reduction in circulating supply.

Changes in the legal environment have also laid a positive foundation. The lawsuit between Ripple and the SEC officially concluded between late 2025 and early 2026, with the court clarifying that while initial institutional sales could constitute investment contracts, the XRP token itself and secondary market sales are not securities. This means Ripple is no longer plagued by broad injunctions or threats of security classification, serving as the legal basis for the current market rally.

While institutional investors are aggressively building positions, general retail investors have entered a 'fatigue zone,' feeling frustrated by the sluggish price movement. Experts analyze that this psychological gap between institutions and individuals could be a signal of the market bottoming out. This is because institutional accumulation is absorbing retail selling volume, solidifying the price support level.

Major Catalysts Scheduled for Late May and Future Outlook

The upcoming May 21st is the markup deadline for the CLARITY Act, and whether this bill passes is expected to be a major turning point determining the direction of the XRP price. If the bill passes the committee, XRP is highly likely to immediately retest $1.80; however, if delayed, the current sideways movement within the $1.30 to $1.45 range may continue. This will serve as a clear example of the influence regulatory clarity has on price.

Overall, the probability of XRP breaking through to $2.70 by the end of the second quarter of 2026 is estimated at about 60%. If the current price compression pattern is resolved to the upside, the energy accumulated over the past several years is expected to explode, forming strong upward momentum. However, continuous monitoring of certain variables, such as the impact of Ripple's RLUSD stablecoin launch on the demand for XRP as a bridge currency, is required.