G7 Leaders' Legitimacy Crisis: Outlook for Power Shifts in the Second Half of 2026 Based on Prediction Markets and Approval Rating Data

Following the G7 summit held in Évian, France, in June 2026, participating leaders are facing a serious domestic political legitimacy crisis. As the approval ratings of UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron have plummeted to record lows, prediction markets have begun questioning their ability to complete their terms, pricing in the risk of early exits.

As of July 16, 2026, the global political landscape is suffering from the dual hardships of falling approval ratings and inflation. In particular, the 'net-negative' approval rating trend observed among G7 nations is being interpreted as a structural governance crisis rather than a mere whim of public opinion, and it is expected to act as a significant variable in future quarterly political schedules.

In the centers of Western democracy—the United States, the United Kingdom, and France—the phenomenon of negative evaluations overwhelming positive ones has become entrenched. According to data released in July 2026, President Emmanuel Macron's approval rating is only 15%, while his disapproval rating has reached 77%, giving him the most precarious scorecard among G7 leaders.

Unlike the G7 nations, which have lost political momentum due to high prices and a housing crisis, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is confirming strong public support, maintaining an approval rating of 68–70%.

This stark contrast further highlights the volatility within the G7. Compared to the situation in South Korea, where Leader Lee Jae-myung enjoys solid trust with an approval rating of 62–63%, the position of European leaders, whose ratings hover around 20%, is assessed as being at a level where it is difficult to secure policy momentum.

Possibility of Leadership Change Based on Prediction Market Data

1. Keir Starmer (UK): 53.0% probability of leaving office (based on Octagon market data)
2. Emmanuel Macron (France): 0.3% probability of leaving office (based on Kalshi market data)
3. Donald Trump (USA): 0.1% probability of leaving office (based on Kalshi market data)

Prediction markets function as indicators that aggregate and display political risks more agilely than opinion polls. According to Octagon's analysis, Prime Minister Keir Starmer's probability of leaving office was calculated at 53%, exceeding a majority, which signifies that market participants are taking the current economic situation in the UK very seriously.

Analysis of Power Vacuum Risks in the UK and France

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is bogged down by chronic issues such as the failure to curb inflation and a shortage of housing supply. As of July 2026, a low approval rating of 23% and a high disapproval rating of 68% serve as evidence supporting the market's judgment that he is the most likely G7 leader to step down from power first.

The situation in France is also not optimistic, and President Macron is effectively losing control due to the early ignition of the next presidential race. In opinion polls conducted in early July 2026, potential candidates within the ruling party, such as Minister Retailleau, began to distance themselves from the president, accelerating the shift of power toward the 2027 presidential election.

Despite a disapproval rating of 51–57%, US President Donald Trump maintains an approval rating of 43%, securing a relatively stable support base compared to European leaders. The fact that his probability of leaving office remains extremely low at 0.1% in the Kalshi market suggests that his grip on the party remains strong ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

Mark Carney of Canada also shows a sense of stability in contrast to his European counterparts, recording a low 0.1% probability of leaving office in prediction markets. According to Kalshi data, his possibility of leaving office is evaluated as being at the same low level as President Donald Trump, indicating that the current political crisis within the G7 is primarily concentrated in the traditional powers of the European continent across the Atlantic.

In the second half of 2026, the G7 is raising its voice on external geopolitical issues such as support for a ceasefire in Lebanon and humanitarian aid for the Gaza Strip, but internal political vulnerability has emerged as the greatest threat. As domestic economic mismanagement and the alienation of public sentiment accelerate, the possibility of significant leadership changes in the United Kingdom and France before the fourth quarter of 2026 cannot be ruled out.