Cracks After the Évian-les-Bains Summit: An Analysis of G7 Leadership Through Prediction Markets

A month has passed since the conclusion of the G7 summit held in Evian-les-Bains, France, from June 15 to 17, 2026. While the leaders at the time strengthened their solidarity by discussing 'balanced, shared, and sustainable growth' for the global economy, as of July 17, 2026, the heads of each nation are facing severe drops in approval ratings and significant political challenges.

Political prediction markets are closely monitoring the possibility of a change in G7 leadership. In particular, whether French President Emmanuel Macron and U.S. President Donald Trump will step down has emerged as a major focus for the market, suggesting that domestic political instability in each country has reached a tipping point.

According to an analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), this summit was held at a time when geopolitical and economic turmoil reached its peak. While the leaders presented a united front externally, internally they are struggling to maintain leadership in the face of plummeting approval ratings and fierce challenges from opposition parties.

Against this backdrop, data from the prediction market Kalshi shows the future of G7 leaders in numbers. Based on each country's political instability, market participants are actively trading on who will be the next to leave, which is interpreted as a substantial market warning beyond simple opinion polls.

According to Kalshi's data from May and July 2026, the probability of President Emmanuel Macron being the first to leave office was recorded at 0.3%. This is higher than the 0.1% recorded for Mark Carney of the UK and President Donald Trump of the US, suggesting that Macron's political position is relatively more unstable.

G7 leaders gathered in Évian-les-Bains to discuss sustainable growth, but their domestic foundations are more fragile than ever.

France fell into a serious governance crisis this week, July 14, 2026, as President Macron's approval rating hit a historic low. According to data from the polling agency Ifop, 70% of the public expressed dissatisfaction with Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu's administration, leading to a decline in trust for the entire cabinet.

France: Macron's Historic Low and the Rise of the Right

1. Jordan Bardella, leader of the National Rally (RN), took first place in the politician popularity rankings with a 35% approval rating.
2. Marine Le Pen followed with 33%, proving the strong support base of the right-wing block.
3. Satisfaction with Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu is only 30%, and distrust in the government is deepening.

In particular, the percentage of French youth aged 25 to 34 who evaluate the president positively was only 27% as of April 2026. This stands in stark contrast to the 41% approval rating among those aged 65 and older, clearly illustrating the intergenerational political conflict and the collapse of institutional trust within France.

United States: Stagnant Approval Ratings and Legal Friction for the Second Trump Administration

In the United States, President Donald Trump's approval rating has remained in the low 30s since the start of his second term. Following a 33% rating in the April 2026 AP-NORC poll, Pew Research and Ipsos polls also showed low approval ratings of 34% each, weakening the administration's momentum for state affairs. The table below details the results of major opinion polls collected during the spring of 2026.

Along with the decline in approval ratings, legal disputes related to the 22nd Amendment and lawsuits against administrative actions are adding to political uncertainty. The results of the U.S. primary elections scheduled for August 2026 and the political changes surrounding Mark Carney in the UK will be decisive moments in reshaping the G7 leadership landscape in the second half of this year. Although Macron is ranked first in the market for the likelihood of stepping down, the gap between G7 leaders remains very narrow.